February 12, 2026
South Africa is often described as volatile.
The Rand moves sharply, Equities can rise and fall quickly. It is natural to assume property behaves the same way.
The data suggests otherwise.
Over the past twenty years, the JSE All Share Index has delivered annualised returns of roughly 11 to 13%.
In that same period, it has experienced declines of more than 35% during crisis years.
The Rand has depreciated against the US Dollar by around 5 to 6% per year over two decades with individual years seeing meaningful swings exceeding 20%.
According to FNB and Lightstone data, national house price growth has averaged approximately 6 to 8% per year over the long term.
Even during periods of economic pressure, price adjustments have tended to be gradual rather than abrupt.
The Western Cape has consistently outperformed the national average.
Since 2010, Cape Town metro residential property values have increased by more than 140%. Over the same period, national growth has been closer to 90 percent. Within Cape Town, the Atlantic Seaboard sits at the upper end of that spectrum. Deeds office analysis between Green Point and Llandudno shows approximately R30 billion in sales registered since 2021, averaging around 500 transactions per year.
Around 82%of purchases in this segment are cash based which reduces forced selling during rate cycles and limits sharp downward pressure. No asset class is immune to cycles but when you compare asset classes side by side, residential property does not exhibit the same level of price volatility as equities or currency.
And within South Africa, prime coastal nodes such as the Atlantic Seaboard have shown stronger growth and structural demand relative to the national average.
Paul often puts it simply.
“You have to distinguish between South Africa as a whole and specific locations. Location determines value.”
If you are assessing volatility, it helps to look at the numbers calmly,
When measured against equities and currency, residential property in South Africa has shown far lower price swings over time. National growth has been steady, However, on the Atlantic Seaboard, constrained supply, consistent demand, and high levels of cash participation provide additional stability. Volatility exists in every asset class, but the data suggests that well located property has behaved far more steadily than many assume.
References:
JSE Historical Data
https://www.jse.co.za
FNB Property Barometer
https://www.fnb.co.za
Lightstone Property Reports
https://www.lightstone.co.za
BBG Atlantic Seaboard Buyer Analysis
https://www.bermanbros.co.za/blog-posts/are-all-atlantic-seaboard-buyers-foreign
